Nine of the Top 10 Are on the Board. The Champs Are Ranked Eighth.

The AVCA released its Division I women’s volleyball preseason poll on Aug. 10, and the defending national champion came back eighth. Ten days later, all seven teams ranked ahead of the Aggies start playing, and so do the Aggies.

That is the whole story of the next three weeks. The poll is a guess. The RallyFuel prediction board for Aug. 21 to 30 is where the guess gets graded, and every matchup on it pays +20 points for voting, win or lose.

Here is what the poll actually says, and where it collides with the schedule.

Nebraska Ran Away With It

The Cornhuskers took 57 of the 63 first place votes and 1,568 points, opening 141 clear of Texas. Kentucky (4 first place votes) and Texas A&M (1) were the only other programs to draw a top ballot.

The top ten:

Look at line eight. Texas A&M won the first national championship in program history and opens the season ranked behind seven teams that did not win it. Kentucky, the team A&M beat in the final, sits five spots higher.

The reason is not a mystery. The Aggies graduated nine seniors off that title team, and the two most quantifiable losses are the ones that ran the offense and the net. Setter Maddie Waak finished second nationally in assists at 11.50 per set. Middle blocker Ifenna Cos-Okpalla finished third in blocks at 1.69 and closed out the championship point in Kansas City. Both were seniors. So was opposite Logan Lednicky, who led the team in kills in the final. Voters are pricing the 2026 roster rather than the 2025 banner. The board is about to test that.

The Champs Open Against the Team They Nearly Lost To

Texas A&M’s run to the title in December went through four opponents: Louisville in the regional semifinal, previously undefeated Nebraska in the regional final, Pitt in the national semifinal, and Kentucky in the championship match.

All four of those teams are in the preseason top seven. All four are on this board.

And A&M opens against the first one. Friday, Aug. 21 at Fiserv Forum, Louisville, ranked seventh, in a rematch of the match where the Aggies were two points from elimination before reverse sweeping their way out of it. Then SMU, ranked eleventh, on Sunday, with sophomore middle blocker Favor Anyanwu back after finishing sixteenth nationally in blocks as a freshman. Two ranked opponents in three days, in a neutral NBA arena, to start a season where the poll already has you eighth.

Louisville has waited eight months for that rematch and gets it in match one.

One caution before you pick it on reputation. The Cardinals blocked second best in the country last season at 3.09 per set, but that wall was built by two seniors, Cara Cresse and Hannah Sherman, who ranked fifteenth and nineteenth nationally and are both gone. A&M lost Cos-Okpalla the same way. Neither team is the team that played in December, which is exactly why an August rematch is worth more as a prediction than as a memory.

If the voters are right, A&M leaves Milwaukee at 1-1 or worse and the ranking looks prescient. If the voters are wrong, they will know by Sunday afternoon.

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And if you want to do more than pick them, the Texas A&M volleyball roster is on RallyFuel with verified profiles. Backing a player ranked eighth in August is cheaper than backing her in December.

The Milwaukee Card, Ranked

AVCA First Serve runs Aug. 21 to 24 and pulls in a startling share of the poll. Every matchup below, with the preseason ranking attached:

Friday, Aug. 21

• No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Louisville, 5 p.m. CT
• No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 3 Kentucky, 8 p.m. CT

Saturday, Aug. 22

• No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 7 Louisville, 3 p.m. CT
• No. 2 Texas vs. No. 12 Arizona State, 6 p.m. CT

Sunday, Aug. 23

• No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 SMU, noon CT
• No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 3 Kentucky, 3 p.m. CT

Monday, Aug. 24

• No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. Xavier
• No. 2 Texas vs. Marquette

Wisconsin vs. Kentucky in the Friday night slot is the one to circle. Three spots apart in the poll, 130 points apart in the voting, and a national TV window. It is also the two best assist offenses in the country from last season meeting in week one, Wisconsin first at 14.27 per set and Kentucky second at 13.83, and unlike most of this board, both engines are still there. Charlie Fuerbringer led the nation in assists as a Wisconsin sophomore, at 12.34 per set. Kassie O’Brien was seventh as a Kentucky freshman, at 11.02. Neither has graduated. It is the closest thing to a true coin flip on the entire ten day board.

Louisville is the other team to watch that weekend. The Cardinals open seventh and play both A&M and Wisconsin inside 24 hours, which is the hardest two match stretch anyone in Milwaukee draws.

Kentucky then gets Pittsburgh two days later. Third ranked against fourth ranked, 15 points apart in the poll. Nobody in that building will be able to tell you who is better, which is exactly why picking it is worth something.

One quiet note on the Monday card: Marquette received 28 votes in the preseason poll and gets Texas in Marquette’s own city. Xavier got zero and draws a Pittsburgh team playing its third match in three days, one that has already faced Kentucky and is replacing both a setter and a middle blocker. Neither is a coin flip. Both are the kind of match where the crowd overcommits.

Vegas Is No. 1 vs. No. 2

The Players Era Showcase at T-Mobile Arena closes out August with the line of the year.

• Sat, Aug. 29: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 18 TCU
• Sun, Aug. 30: No. 1 Nebraska vs. UNLV
• Sun, Aug. 30: No. 1 Nebraska vs. No. 2 Texas
• Sun, Aug. 30: No. 18 TCU vs. UNLV

Nebraska and Texas, first and second in the poll, in Las Vegas, in August. The poll separated them by 141 points and one first place vote.

Both ran top offenses last season, Texas third nationally in team assists at 13.78 and Nebraska seventh at 13.51, and Nebraska returns setter Bergen Reilly, twenty first nationally as a junior. One quirk worth sitting with: Texas finished third as a team without putting a single setter in the individual top fifty, which is the statistical signature of an offense run by committee rather than by one name.

This is also the match where the crowd is most likely to be wrong, because almost nobody picks Nebraska or Texas with their head. Fan bases vote their heart on this one. If you can be dispassionate about it, that is an edge.

Where the Poll Says the Value Is

Cross referencing the rankings against the schedule surfaces four spots where the board looks mispriced.

Creighton in Sioux Falls. The Bluejays are ranked thirteenth and play three matches in three days at the State Farm Showcase: Purdue (ninth), Minnesota (fourteenth), and USC (twentieth). Two of those three opponents are ranked below or near them, and the crowd will pick Creighton to lose all three anyway.

The Saturday card against Minnesota is the one to take, and the shape of it is clean: Creighton was twenty seventh in the country in team assists and outside the top fifty in blocking, Minnesota twenty second in blocking and outside the top fifty in assists. Offense against a wall, one rank apart in the poll. Whoever imposes their half of the game wins it.

One check before you commit: Creighton’s setter Annalea Maeder was thirteenth nationally in assists, and she was a senior.

Arizona State’s eight days. The Sun Devils blocked tenth nationally last season at 2.83 per set, though Colby Neal graduated out of that number. They open twelfth, draw No. 2 Texas in Milwaukee, then face No. 20 USC in Sioux Falls. Two ranked opponents inside eight days to start the year. How they come out of it tells you more about the Big 12 race than anything else in August.

USC is the quiet one in Sioux Falls. The Trojans open twentieth and are one of the very few teams on this board with both engine pieces returning: setter Reese Messer, tenth nationally in assists as a freshman, and middle blocker Leah Ford, thirty first in blocks as a sophomore. USC blocked fifteenth as a team. It plays Arizona State on Saturday and Creighton on Sunday, and it is the one team in that gym nobody is talking about. The USC roster is on RallyFuel.

The College Station bracket is not as blind as it looks. Cal Poly picked up 58 preseason points, more than any other team in the Texas A&M Invitational field outside the host, and the Sunday card against Arkansas State is the quietest match on the entire board. That is exactly why it is worth ten minutes.

Here is the ten minutes. Arkansas State blocked eleventh in the country last season at 2.82 per set and Grand Canyon blocked twentieth at 2.67, both ahead of the host, who finished twenty fifth. But Arkansas State’s wall was Daedrianna Cail, fifth nationally as an individual and a senior, while GCU’s Aubrey Bellus put up 1.30 per set as a freshman and is still there. Cal Poly did not crack the top fifty as a team.

None of that is hidden. It is just nobody’s first instinct in a bracket everyone is calling filler.

Week Two Scatters Across Five Cities

Aug. 28 to 30 splits the board into five simultaneous events. Las Vegas is above, Pittsburgh is below. Here are the other three.

Bluegrass Battle, Lexington

• Fri, Aug. 28: No. 3 Kentucky vs. Utah State
• Sat, Aug. 29: No. 3 Kentucky vs. South Florida

Kentucky drew four first place votes, more than any team except Nebraska, and gets Wisconsin and Pittsburgh in Milwaukee before coming home. Do not read the homestand as a breather. Utah State ran the tenth best assist offense in the country last season and returns setter Kaylie Kofe, fourth nationally as a sophomore. South Florida was nineteenth. Kentucky faces four real offenses in eight days. The Kentucky roster is on RallyFuel.

State Farm Showcase, Sioux Falls

• Fri, Aug. 28: No. 13 Creighton vs. No. 9 Purdue
• Sat, Aug. 29: No. 13 Creighton vs. No. 14 Minnesota
• Sat, Aug. 29: No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 20 USC
• Sun, Aug. 30: No. 20 USC vs. No. 13 Creighton

Texas A&M Invitational, College Station

No. 8 Texas A&M, GCU, Cal Poly and Arkansas State in a round robin across three days.

• Sat, Aug. 29: No. 8 Texas A&M vs. Cal Poly
• Sat, Aug. 29: GCU vs. Arkansas State (GCU roster)
• Sun, Aug. 30: Cal Poly vs. Arkansas State

The Opening Spike Classic Is the Best Field Nobody Named

The second running of this event puts three of the preseason top six in one building, and unlike Milwaukee or Las Vegas it is not neutral ground. Pitt is at home, in a 12,500 seat arena, with every match on ESPN networks.

• Fri, Aug. 28, 6:30 p.m. ET: No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 15 Kansas
• Fri, Aug. 28, 9 p.m. ET: No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Stanford
• Sun, Aug. 30, noon ET: No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 6 Wisconsin
• Sun, Aug. 30, 2:30 p.m. ET: No. 15 Kansas vs. No. 5 Stanford

Pitt vs. Wisconsin on Sunday is the sneaky best match of the closing weekend. Fourth against sixth, two Final Four regulars, meeting before either has learned to hide anything.

Pitt plays three ranked opponents in ten days, two of them at home, and does it having lost both its setter, Brooke Mosher, and its top blocker, Bre Kelley, to graduation. Fourth in the poll is a bet on what replaces them. The Panthers roster is on RallyFuel if you want to back someone through it.

Wisconsin arrives having already played Kentucky and Louisville in Milwaukee. By the time it meets Pitt it will have faced three top seven teams in ten days, which is the hardest opening anyone on this board draws.

What the Board Does Not Include

Sixteen of the twenty five ranked teams play in these ten days, including nine of the top ten. That is an unusually high share for the opening fortnight of a season, and it is why the Aug. 31 poll is going to look nothing like the Aug. 10 one.

The nine sitting it out are Penn State (10), the only top ten team absent, Indiana (16), Florida (17), North Carolina (19), Baylor (21), Tennessee (22), Colorado (23), BYU (24) and Oregon (25).

Four of them are worth knowing about anyway, because they return the pieces that usually decide August matches:

• North Carolina blocked fourth in the country last season and brings back both Jackie Taylor and Lauren Schutter, twenty third nationally in blocks per set.
• Indiana returns Teodora Kričković, fourteenth nationally in assists as a freshman.
• BYU returns Alex Bower, sixteenth in assists as a sophomore, off the twenty second best team offense.
• Florida brings back setter Alexis Stucky, thirtieth nationally in assists as a junior.

None of them gets tested in front of anyone until September. When they finally show up on a board, the crowd will have a month of stale priors and these four will have played nobody. That is usually where the value is.

Why Predict

It is free points. +20 per matchup and 25 matchups on this board. That math gets loud fast. Go see what points unlock in Rewards.

It is a public record of your takes. Everyone is an expert in August. The board keeps receipts, and correct picks build toward the Called Game, Prophet and Oracle badges.

It puts you in the room. Every card has a comment option. Defend your school. Tell someone why they are wrong about Creighton.

The Part That Actually Matters

Predictions are the front door.

Every athlete playing in these matches can be backed directly on RallyFuel through verified profiles and real NIL deals. 90% of every dollar goes straight to the athlete. Payments run through Stripe, and if a deal does not go through, you are refunded.

Women’s volleyball fills Fiserv Forum. It fills T-Mobile Arena. It fills a 12,500 seat arena in Pittsburgh on a Friday night in August, on ESPN. The audience is already there. The NIL support has not caught up.

And the poll you just read is a list of players who are about to get more expensive. Fuerbringer, O’Brien, Messer, Kofe, Anyanwu, Bellus: every one of them was an underclassman last season and every one of them is on a court inside the next three weeks. Back one now and you are early.

So make your picks. Bank the points. Then go find the player from your school who is about to have the best season of her life, and fuel her.

First serve is Friday.

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