Estimates, Not Exact Numbers
If you’re curious about NIL (Name, Image and Likeness) in the realm of college athletics, chances are good you’ve seen or heard the term valuation.
That’s another way of stating how much a college athlete is worth in NIL terms, and those numbers often fluctuate from website to website.
For instance, you might see Texas football quarterback Arch Manning with a $5.3 million valuation and later see that figure listed at $6.8 million on another website. Or you might see BYU basketball freshman forward AJ Dybansta with a $4.3 million NIL valuation on one site and then turn around and see a number over $5 million on another.
None of those numbers are necessarily wrong. It’s important to remember that a valuation is never exact. It’s just an estimate — although, if calculated properly, it’s usually somewhat accurate and at least gives you a ballpark figure of what an athlete might be able to earn.
So how do various media outlets come up with their estimated valuations? Well, it’s a complicated process, but it usually is rooted in common sense and basic business logic.
Multiple factors can come into play, and they’re all significant. In some ways, on-field success is the most important factor. For example, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who received the Heisman Trophy as college football’s best player Saturday night, saw his valuation jump from basically nothing when he arrived at California as a freshman to over $1 million when he transferred to Indiana last season. This year, Mendoza’s valuation skyrocketed to close to $3 million as he engineered a dream season for the Hoosiers.
But sometimes, potential can be just as important as production when it comes to NIL valuations. Take the case of Dybansta, who already was projected as college basketball’s top NIL earner before he ever put on a BYU uniform — and it doesn’t matter that he likely will spend only one season in Provo. Scouts have been projecting him as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft ever since he was in high school. All of that helped him land a big deal with BYU’s collective and made him a popular target for NIL partnerships with heavyweight companies like Nike, Fanatics and Red Bull.
Popularity also is a major factor in determining NIL valuations, and Manning is Exhibit A in that department. His on-field career at Texas hasn’t been off the charts. But name recognition matters, and Manning benefits greatly from sharing a last name with his grandfather Archie and uncles Eli and Peyton.
Doing well on the field or court isn’t the only way a player can boost their valuation. Most valuation models take an athlete’s social media presence into account. An athlete with a large following on X and Instagram naturally has more appeal to potential partners than an athlete with low visibility.
The market an athlete plays in also can be a factor. But don’t confuse that with the “big markets” and “small markets” you so often hear about in professional sports. Columbus, Ohio will never be confused with New York, Los Angeles, Chicago or Dallas. But Ohio State football players consistently rank high when it comes to NIL valuations. Receiver Jeremiah Smith, quarterback Julian Sayin and safety Caleb Downs appear near the top of nearly every list. Part of that is because they play for a program with enormous statewide and nationwide visibility. But their earning potential also is enhanced by appeal to businesses in the immediate Columbus area that are looking for promotional opportunities.
That kind of grass-roots appeal is also a major factor in places like Tuscaloosa, Ala., State College, Pa., and Storrs, Conn. Male and female athletes across all sports — even niche sports and even at smaller schools — are benefitting from deals with local businesses.
Another important valuation factor that sometimes flies under the radar is market benchmarks, or the success of past or existing deals for similar athletes. For example, women’s basketball star Caitlin Clark did a lot for the next generation when she became both an on-court and cultural phenomenon at Iowa. While in college, Clark landed major deals with brands like Nike, State Farm, Gatorade and Panini.
Those companies — and others — can look at how well those partnerships performed and use them as a measuring stick when evaluating potential deals with current stars like LSU’s Flau’jae Johnson, Oklahoma’s Aaliyah Chavez and JuJu Watkins.
Learn More About the NIL Landscape
Name, Image, and Likeness plays an increasing role in college sports, and understanding how it works often requires more than individual articles or news updates.
RallyFuel is a platform focused on NIL-related topics across college athletics. It brings together information about athletes, NIL activity, and the broader structure behind modern college sports, helping readers explore the topic in more depth.
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