The next March Madness might yet be some time away, but college basketball fans all over the country are already starting to get excited about the next season.
Florida’s dramatic 2025 men’s title run—capped by a buzzer-beater over Houston—and UConn’s dominant women’s championship (an 82-59 rout of South Carolina) set the bar high.Those teams are likely to be among the top college contenders for the NCAA crowns in 2026, but few sporting events have the level of excitement and unpredictability of March Madness.
At this early stage (Oct. 20, 2025), projections blend last season’s NET rankings, transfer impacts, and KenPom’s early efficiency models. Expect chaos: Portal hauls could flip 10+ spots by conference play. At this early stage, it is tough to guess the identity of the teams that will make up the Final Four but it is worth making some early predictions as things start to shake out in the college game.
Without further ado, let’s get into our top 25 rankings for teams ahead of the new season. Who’s your lock for a Cinderella run?
Men’s Preseason Top 25
Our rankings favor defensive upgrades (Houston’s edge) over raw returning production (Purdue’s 68%). Bold call: No Duke top-3—NBA losses sting.
| Rank | Team | Returning Production % (KenPom) | X-Factor Player | Bold Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | 52% | Chris Cenac Jr. (F, Team USA U17) | National champs; DRTG top-5 locks Final Four. |
| 2 | Purdue | 68% | Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.1 PPG) | Sweet 16 revenge; Cluff adds 12+ PPG inside. |
| 3 | Florida | 61% | Alex Condon (title experience) | Repeat bid; replace Clayton with depth scoring. |
| 4 | Duke | 45% | Cameron Boozer (son of Carlos) | Elite Eight max; twins shine but inexperience caps. |
| 5 | Connecticut | 55% | Alex Karaban (14.3 PPG) | Top seed; Furphy's Aussie grit boosts wing defense. |
| 6 | St. John's | 48% | Bryce Hopkins (40% 3PT) | Big East kings; Hopkins erases Luis' departure. |
| 7 | Michigan | 42% | Winters Grady (top-100 recruit) | Sweet 16 leap; portal trio mimics '25 Gonzaga magic. |
| 8 | Alabama | 50% | Lebaron Philon (G) | SEC favorites; Crimson Tide's pace overwhelms. |
| 9 | Brigham Young | 58% | AJ Dybantsa (hyped freshman) | Sweet 16+; Dybantsa's handles > Demin's exit. |
| 10 | UCLA | 47% | Donovan Dent (20.4 PPG, ex-NM) | Big Ten dark horse; Dent's vision = tourney assists king. |
| 11 | Kentucky | 53% | Otega Oweh (leading scorer) | SEC contenders if Quaintance (knee) hits 15 PPG. |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 60% | JT Toppin (Big 12 POY) | Final Four rematch fuel; Toppin doubles down. |
| 13 | Louisville | 44% | Aly Khalifa (post-injury) | Kelsey era blooms; transfers gel for Elite Eight. |
| 14 | Iowa State | 49% | Blake Buchanan (ex-VA) | Round of 32 floor; Williams' surgery tests depth. |
| 15 | Arizona | 51% | Jaden Bradley (3.7 RPG) | Experience pays; Peat's recruiting haul matures. |
| 16 | Tennessee | 46% | Nate Ament (McD All-Am) | Sweet 16 ceiling; Ament's versatility surprises. |
| 17 | Wisconsin | 57% | John Blackwell (15.8 PPG) | Big Ten sleeper; Rapp's rookie leap = tourney bid. |
| Sleeper Alert | Arkansas (18) | 54% | Darius Acuff Jr. (SEC Frosh POY?) | Sweet 16 redux; Acuff's speed exploits mismatches. |
| 19 | Gonzaga | 43% | Tyon Grant-Foster (GCU transfer) | Battle replaces trio; Venters' injury return sparks. |
| 20 | Auburn | 40% | Tahaad Pettiford (11.6 PPG) | Rebuild year; Bashir stabilizes post-Final Four loss. |
| 21 | Illinois | 48% | Andrej Stojakovic (17.9 PPG) | Balkan towers dominate; 7' duo = rebounding clinic. |
| 22 | Kansas | 55% | Flory Bidunga (returning F) | Self's portal miss hurts; Peterson dazzles as freshman. |
| 23 | Creighton | 41% | Aleksa Dimitrijevic (7' Serbian) | Elite Eight potential; Dimitrijevic fills Kalkbrenner void. |
| 24 | Michigan State | 39% | Jeremy Fears Jr. (step-up G) | Deep rotation saves; Carr/Kohler excite in transition. |
| 25 | Oregon | 50% | Jackson Shelstad (top scorer) | Round of 32 repeat; Simpkins replaces Bamba seamlessly. |
- Houston: Most college basketball experts are tipping Houston to have a successful season after adding stars such as exciting forward Chris Cenac Jr., who played for Team USA at the FIBA U17 World Cup and led the Link Academy Lions to glory at the Nike EYBL Scholastic Tournament. With 52% returning production (per ESPN), they edge Purdue via portal firepower. Key players like L.J. Cryer and J’Wan Roberts have moved on, but Isiah Harwell is another eye-catching arrival… (family hoops legacy intact). Hook: Can Harwell’s Boise State ties inspire a title?
- Purdue: The Boilermakers are hotly tipped to go deeper… KenPom projects top-10 offense (thanks to Kaufman’s 20.1 PPG). Oscar Cluff arrives after scoring 17.6 points per game with South Dakota State…Backed by vets like Smith (son of ’94 POY Glenn). X-Factor: Cluff fixes ’25’s interior woes.
Women’s Preseason Top 25
UConn’s post-Bueckers reload (top-3 KenPom returning %) screams repeat. Texas/LSU battle for #3 on experience vs. scoring punch.
| Rank | Team | Returning Production % (KenPom) | X-Factor Player | Bold Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UConn | 62% | Azzi Fudd (senior G) | Title defense; Williams (19.2 PPG) fills Bueckers' shoes. |
| 2 | South Carolina | 59% | Ta'Niya Latson (25+ PPG, ex-FSU) | SEC beasts; 35-4 repeat with Okot's double-doubles. |
| 3 | Texas | 65% | Madison Booker (SEC POY) | Final Four; Harmon's fifth year = veteran lockdown. |
| 4 | LSU | 58% | Flau'Jae Johnson (18.6 PPG) | Mulkey magic; Fulwiley transfer ignites Elite Eight run. |
| 5 | UCLA | 55% | Lauren Betts (20+ PPG) | WNBA-bound Betts leads semis; Kneepkens' 50% FG shines. |
| 6 | Duke | 52% | Emilee Skinner (ESPN #4) | Elite Eight encore; Fournier/Jackson duo drops 25+ nightly. |
| 7 | Tennessee | 48% | Talaysia Cooper (16.6 PPG) | Sweet 16+; Pauldo's upside mirrors '25 Taliajen. |
| 8 | Michigan | 46% | Syla Swords (sophomore surge) | Surprise bid; Sofilkanich (19.7 PPG) adds punch. |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 50% | Aaliyah Chavez (ESPN #3) | Sweet 16 floor; Beers (17.3 PPG) anchors post-Iowa win. |
| 10 | NC State | 57% | Zoe Brooks (14.2 PPG) | Final Four dark horse; Pierre (20+ PPG) replaces losses. |
| 11 | North Carolina | 54% | Nyla Brooks (ESPN #13) | Sweet 16 leap; UCLA Vegas clash tests progress. |
| 12 | Iowa State | 60% | Audi Crooks (23.4 PPG, Big 12 POY) | Conference kings; Williams stabilizes PG. |
| 13 | Maryland | 53% | Kaylene Smikle (17.9 PPG) | New arena boost; Frese eyes OT thrillers. |
| 14 | Ole Miss | 47% | Cotie McMahon (16.4 PPG, ex-OSU) | Elite Eight breakthrough; Peterson's 21.4 PPG explodes. |
| 15 | Notre Dame | 49% | Hannah Hidalgo (23.8 PPG) | Hidalgo carries; Ivey gels freshmen for deep run. |
| Sleeper Alert | TCU (16) | 51% | Olivia Miles (15.4 PPG) | Elite Eight repeat; Suarez adds Euro flair. |
| 17 | Baylor | 45% | Taliah Scott (20+ PPG burst) | Round of 32+; Pemberton rebuilds post-Vonleh. |
| 18 | USC | 42% | Jazzy Davidson (ESPN #1) | Elite Eight; Dunn's 15.5 PPG + US U19 pedigree. |
| 19 | Iowa | 40% | Hannah Stuelke (12.7 PPG step-up) | Sweet 16 if Stuelke hits 18 PPG sans Olsen. |
| 20 | Louisville | 44% | Laura Ziegler (17.5 PPG) | Upset alert vs. UConn; Jones elevates to 15 PPG. |
| 21 | Michigan State | 43% | Grace VanSlooten (returning) | Round of 32; Brown's 18 PPG fuels revenge vs. NC St. |
| 22 | Oklahoma State | 48% | Stailee Heard (16.8 PPG) | Sweet 16 potential; Onoh's international edge. |
| 23 | Richmond | 56% | Maggie Doogan (17.0 PPG) | Historic bid; Simon transfer writes next chapter. |
| 24 | Kentucky | 41% | Tonie Morgan (13.7 PPG) | Round of 32; Paurová injury tests Boone's grit. |
| 25 | Vanderbilt | 39% | Mikayla Blakes (23+ PPG, 50+ games) | Cinderella spark; Blakes = tourney MVP candidate. |
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