The stat sheet loves Darian Mensah. Our fans love Trinidad Chambliss. Our NIL Index loves Arch Manning. Here’s where the race stands heading into Week 2.
Sept. 10, 2026
One week into the season, the Heisman race already has a breakout star, and a bit of an identity crisis.
Darian Mensah owned opening weekend with a near-perfect Miami debut. RallyFuel fans voting in our Heisman NIL Trophy Case are riding with Trinidad Chambliss. And RallyFuel’s NIL Index, which blends on-field performance with visibility, social reach and fan demand, has Arch Manning on top.
Here’s how our two boards compare, what happened in Week 1 and what to watch this weekend.
Fans vs. the NIL Index
| Contender | School (conference) | RallyFuel fan picks | RallyFuel NIL Index |
| Arch Manning, QB | Texas (SEC) | 10% | 60.2 |
| Dante Moore, QB | Oregon (Big Ten) | 4% | 58.3 |
| Jeremiah Smith, WR | Ohio State (Big Ten) | 12% | 56.6 |
| Julian Sayin, QB | Ohio State (Big Ten) | 10% | 55.2 |
| Trinidad Chambliss, QB | Ole Miss (SEC) | 21% | 54.6 |
| Malachi Toney, WR | Miami (ACC) | Not on ballot | 53.4 |
| Sam Leavitt, QB | LSU (SEC) | 3% | 53.1 |
| John Mateer, QB | Oklahoma (SEC) | 5% | 52.8 |
| Gunner Stockton, QB | Georgia (SEC) | 2% | 49.7 |
| Darian Mensah, QB | Miami (ACC) | 7% | 48.4 |
| Josh Hoover, QB | Indiana (Big Ten) | 2% | 43.2 |
| Jayden Maiava, QB | USC (Big Ten) | Not on ballot | 43.0 |
| CJ Carr, QB | Notre Dame (Independent) | 10% | 41.7 |
| Anyone else | — | 13% | — |
Fan picks are from our Heisman NIL Trophy Case and NIL Index scores are from RallyFuel athlete profiles, both as of Sept. 10. The NIL Index weights Performance at 35%, NIL Visibility at 20%, Social Power at 20% and Fan Demand at 25%, and it updates weekly during the season. Browse every league in our Conference Hub.
The gaps are the story. Our fans have made Chambliss their clear pick at 21%, but he’s only fifth on the NIL Index. Mensah, fresh off that 401-yard debut, gets just 7% of fan picks and ranks 10th of 13 on the Index. Carr is tied for the third-most fan picks but sits last on the Index. And Manning, who draws only 10% of the vote, is the most marketable name on the board by our measure.
The breakout: Darian Mensah, Miami
Mensah’s first game in orange and green could hardly have gone better. He completed 27 of 30 passes for 401 yards and five touchdowns, without an interception or a sack, in a 45-6 win at Stanford, becoming just the sixth quarterback since 2000 to throw for 400 yards and five scores while completing at least 90% of his passes. No contender made a louder opening statement.
It shouldn’t come as a total shock. Mensah threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke last season and led the Blue Devils to an ACC title before transferring to Miami, where he’s surrounded by weapons like Cooper Barkate, who followed him from Duke, and running back Mark Fletcher Jr.. Miami also has a clear path to an ACC title and a College Football Playoff spot, which gives Mensah the chance to pair big numbers with big wins. The date to circle is Nov. 7, when the Hurricanes visit Notre Dame in what could become a head-to-head with CJ Carr.
The RallyFuel angle: Mensah’s NIL Index is 48.4, 10th among the 13 contenders we track. His Performance score of 60 is second only to Dante Moore’s, but his NIL Visibility (66) and Social Power (71) trail the bigger brands, and his Fan Demand is still at zero. Even his own receiver outranks him. Malachi Toney sits at 53.4 after setting Miami’s single-game receiving record with 12 catches for 234 yards and three touchdowns in the same game.
Mensah’s next chance to build his case comes tonight, when No. 7 Miami hosts Florida A&M at 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
The fans’ pick: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
With 21% of the vote, Chambliss is the runaway leader in our Trophy Case, and Week 1 gave his backers plenty to like. After a sluggish first half against No. 24 Louisville in Nashville, he went 21 of 37 for 336 yards and three touchdowns, including two 62-yard scores to Deuce Alexander, and ran for 60 yards and another touchdown. When Louisville tied the game late, he drove Ole Miss into range for a 48-yard field goal that won it 41-38 as time expired.
His story is built for December. Chambliss is a Division II transfer from Ferris State who didn’t become Ole Miss’s full-time starter until Week 3 last season, led the Rebels to their first College Football Playoff appearance, and then won a court injunction in February to secure a sixth year of eligibility. His NIL Index of 54.6 is powered by strong NIL Visibility (82) and Social Power (81). Two big stages are coming: LSU and Lane Kiffin visit Oxford on Sept. 19, and Ole Miss plays at Texas on Oct. 24.
The NIL Index leader gets the biggest stage
Manning’s NIL Index of 60.2 is the best of any contender we track, thanks to a 92 in Social Power and an 88 in NIL Visibility. He looked the part on the field, too, going 20 of 27 for 305 yards and four touchdowns in a 59-7 rout of Texas State before sitting down with a 40-point lead in the third quarter.
Saturday night brings the biggest Heisman game of Week 2: No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), a Big Ten–SEC heavyweight fight. Manning will share the field with two more contenders. Julian Sayin, a 2025 Heisman finalist, opened by completing 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns in a 56-3 win over Ball State, and ran for another score. Jeremiah Smith caught eight passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns in that game, all before halftime, and struck the Heisman pose after the second one. He’d be the first pure wide receiver to win the award since DeVonta Smith in 2020. On the NIL Index, Smith (56.6) and Sayin (55.2) rank third and fourth on our board. A big night from any of the three could close the gap on Mensah in a hurry.
The rest of the field
CJ Carr entered the season with as much Heisman buzz as anyone and did nothing wrong in a 41-13 win over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, going 19 of 29 for 239 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. But Notre Dame led just 13-10 at halftime, and tidy wasn’t loud enough to keep pace with Mensah. Carr gets Rice on Saturday, and he’s chasing history: Notre Dame hasn’t had a Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987.
Dante Moore, who returned to Oregon instead of entering the NFL draft, threw for a career-high 378 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-27 escape against Boise State, including a 62-yard score with eight minutes left that put Oregon ahead for good. His NIL Visibility score is a perfect 100, which is why his NIL Index of 58.3 trails only Manning’s.
Sam Leavitt introduced himself to LSU fans in a 51-10 rout of Clemson in Lane Kiffin’s Tigers debut, throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown and running for 113 yards and two more scores on 12 carries.
Josh Hoover became the first quarterback since 2000 to throw four touchdown passes in an Indiana debut, going 13 of 16 for 231 yards in a 52-16 win over North Texas as he tries to follow Fernando Mendoza’s act in Bloomington. John Mateer, who threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns on just 17 attempts in the opener, takes No. 11 Oklahoma to Michigan on Saturday, where Bryce Underwood will look to bounce back after the Wolverines needed a last-play Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan.
Two of the season’s hottest starts belong to players who aren’t on our Trophy Case ballot: Toney and USC‘s Jayden Maiava. Maiava has completed 48 of 54 passes (88.9%) for 635 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, the most passing yards of any contender, though he’s played one more game than most of them. If you like either one, choose “anyone else” on the ballot, like 13% of our voters already have.
Week 2 Heisman viewing guide
Tap any game to make your prediction on RallyFuel. Each one is worth 20 points.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) and TV | Contenders to watch |
| Florida A&M at No. 7 Miami | Thu., 8 p.m., ACC Network | Mensah, Toney |
| No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan | Sat., noon, FOX | Mateer |
| No. 6 Oregon at Oklahoma State | Sat., noon, ESPN | Moore |
| Howard at No. 5 Indiana | Sat., noon, BTN | Hoover |
| Western Kentucky at No. 2 Georgia | Sat., 12:45 p.m., SEC Network | Gunner Stockton |
| Rice at No. 3 Notre Dame | Sat., 3:30 p.m., NBC | Carr |
| No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas | Sat., 7:30 p.m., ABC | Manning, Sayin, Smith |
| Louisiana Tech at No. 8 LSU | Sat., 7:30 p.m., SEC Network+ | Leavitt |
| Charlotte at No. 9 Ole Miss | Sat., 7:45 p.m., ESPN2 | Chambliss |
| Louisiana at No. 14 USC | Sat., 11 p.m., BTN | Maiava |
Rankings and TV listings via ESPN as of Sept. 10.
Why it’s still early
This race moves fast. Last year, Mendoza started the season as an afterthought in the Heisman conversation and finished with the trophy, a 16-0 national title run at Indiana and the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. His NIL Score on our leaderboard is 64.4, a mark no 2026 contender has reached yet.
History also says to watch the standings. Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20 Heismans, and the winner usually plays for a team in the national title mix, so team results will reshape this board every Saturday.
How to get in the game
Make your pick
Head to the Heisman NIL Trophy Case and choose your winner. If the race turns, you can change your pick.
Move the NIL Index
Fan Demand makes up 25% of every contender’s NIL Index, and it’s driven by RallyFuel searches, profile views and fuels. That adds up fast: every 10 points of Fan Demand is worth 2.5 points on the Index. If Miami fans pushed Mensah’s Fan Demand from 0 to 50, with everything else unchanged, his Index would rise from 48.4 to about 60.9, passing Manning for the top spot on our board.
Fuel a contender
The top spot on each of these contenders’ RallyFuel Royale leaderboards is still open. Pick your athlete, choose the school you’re repping, and if your school wins the Royale, your fuel becomes a real NIL deal. If it doesn’t, or if the athlete transfers, you’re refunded in full. Fuels start at $5, and every $1 earns 20 RallyFuel points. New here? See how it works.
Check back after Week 2 for the next update.
